Developments in the Horn of Africa, Updates and Corrections

  • USAID funding cuts (including to African countries) in 2025: US$54 billion. Programmes combating HIV/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis are at risk. The already devastating toll of 600,000 malaria deaths each year—75% of them children under the age of five—is expected to rise significantly.
  • German development aid is being reduced from €11 billion to €10 billion.
    Germany's contribution to the World Food Programme (WFP) was still €78 million in 2023, fell to €58 million in 2024, and is expected to drop to just €28 million under the current budget proposal.
  • Due to a lack of funding, the World Health Organization (WHO) can no longer respond adequately to Ebola outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and eastern Uganda.
  • More than 3.5 million people in Ethiopia face the threat of famine without WFP assistance.
    The United Nations is also receiving less funding: UNICEF's education budget is expected to decline by US$3.2 billion by 2026.
  • The closure of the Strait of Hormuz highlights a fundamental truth of today's geopolitics: in an interconnected global economy, conflicts in distant regions can quickly escalate into national crises. For Ethiopia, this primarily means shortages and rising prices for fuel, wheat, fertiliser, and cooking oil—placing an even greater burden on the poorest communities.
  • Civilians in Ethiopia's Amhara and Oromia regions are being subjected to atrocities as a result of fighting between ethnic militias and retaliatory actions by the central government against local communities. Disputes over Western Tigray and other territories are increasing the risk of conflict between Amhara and Tigrayan groups.
    Tensions between Tigray and the central government, as well as between Eritrea and Ethiopia, are also escalating, while Ethiopia continues to pursue access to the Red Sea.
    The Horn of Africa remains a region of fragile balances, where longstanding conflicts, unresolved border disputes, new alliances, and geopolitical interests overlap.
  • Just 10 days. That is all it took this year for the richest 1% of the world's population to use up their entire annual CO₂ budget. According to the United Nations, wealthy industrialised countries had already exceeded this limit by 10 January 2026. Although Africa is home to around 19% of the world's population, it contributes only about 2–3% of global annual greenhouse gas emissions and has historically played only a minimal role in causing the climate crisis.

The Horn of Africa is not only a region with a long history of conflict, but also a highly volatile part of the world where longstanding disputes, emerging rivalries, and global geopolitical interests can escalate at any time.